Bombardier Sees Light Jet, Large Cabin Aircraft Sales Lifting in 2017
24 May, 2016
Projecting an emerging market rebound over the next two years, Bombardier predicted a continuing recovery in the light jet category, as well as resurgent demand for large cabin airplanes, when it unveiled its 10-year market forecast on the opening day of the 2016 European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE2016).
“Although right now we’re going through a softer patch due to what’s happening in emerging markets, we see the large cabin category leading the market [over the next 10 years],” said Jean-Christophe Gallagher, Bombardier Business Aircraft vice president of strategy, marketing of and innovation.
Bombardier forecasts 8,300 business jet deliveries from 2016 to 2025, valued at $250 billion. More than 50 percent of that value will come from large cabin aircraft.
This year’s forecast is revised down from last year’s 9,000 aircraft over 10 years, which Gallagher attributed to softer than expected short-term market outlook. Bombardier’s positive long term forecast has not changed.
Rebound in Emerging Markets, Maturing Industry in Europe
A rebound in emerging markets by the end of 2017 should boost global GDP growth to nearly 3 percent, a key tipping point for business aircraft demand, said Gallagher. Over the same 24-month period, a steady, if gradual, rise in the oil price should lift world stock markets.
While the light jet category was hit hardest by the 2008 recession, it represents the largest installed fleet, so will see demand generated by aircraft replacement over the next 10 years.
Before 2008, light jets represented nearly half of all sales, at more than 400 deliveries a year, said Gallagher. “We expect to see a continuing recovery of the light category, but not to what we saw before 2008.” He anticipated closer to 340 deliveries a year, making up about 37 percent of the future market.
Deliveries in the midsize category, which represents a younger fleet of recent successful models, would hold steady in the short and long term.
North America will continue to lead in new aircraft deliveries, with 3,930 over 10 years, followed by Europe, at 1,530.
“When you see where the industry is at in Europe right now, it’s still maturing and it’s certain to grow in the coming years,” said Fabio Gamba, CEO of the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA). “There’s room to maneuver.”
View the full Bombardier Business Aircraft • Market Forecast 2016-2025.